The trusty quarterback trending arrow points up for Dak Prescott and down for Josh Allen.
Plus, Brock Purdy is back, people! (Even though he never really went anywhere.) So is Russell Wilson, I think?
And who wouldn’t be excited for the Patrick Mahomes–Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson–Joe Burrow matchups in Week 11?
Advertisement
Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 11. A warning that there are plenty of unexpected names and question marks throughout that chart.
GO DEEPER
NFL midseason QB EPA rankings: Joe Burrow trending up, Brock Purdy trending down
Nos. 1-8
player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 10 | Rtg ovr | Rtg wk 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|
0.28 (1) | 0.45 (3) | 109.9 (1) | 148.9 (1) | |
0.21 (2) | BYE | 106.4 (2) | BYE | |
0.17 (3) | 0.58 (1) | 105.1 (3) | 138.3 (2) | |
0.16 (4) | 0.44 (4) | 99.5 (7) | 114.9 (5) | |
0.15 (5) | 0.16 (8) | 101.0 (6) | 87.1 (12) | |
0.15 (6) | BYE | 96.7 (11) | BYE | |
0.14 (7) | -0.32 (28) | 96.6 (12) | 59.3 (26) | |
0.11 (8) | BYE | 97.0 (10) | BYE |
The San Francisco 49ers passer posted the best passer rating of his career in the team’s Week 10 thrashing of the Jacksonville Jaguars. That’s saying something since it’s the third time Purdy produced a passer rating north of 140.0 in 17 NFL starts. Maybe it helped to have Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back in the lineup?
Prescott is having one of the better stretches in his career. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback led the league in EPA rate (0.33) and passer rating (125.1) during Weeks 6-10 (four games, Dallas had a bye in Week 7). Oddly, he’s done it while being the fourth-most-sacked quarterback in the span (13).
A weird couple of weeks for the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert. In Week 9, he yielded the second-worst passer rating (65.4) and fifth-worst EPA rate (-0.20) of his career against the New York Jets. The Chargers won that game. In Week 10, he put up outstanding numbers against the Detroit Lions. Los Angeles lost that one. Herbert’s Week 10 EPA rate was the highest for a losing quarterback this season.
I promise I’m not trying to downplay the success of C.J. Stroud. He’s helping the Houston Texans become a playoff contender. But take Week 9’s awesome performance away for a second. Stroud’s last four games outside of that, he compiled a 0.04 EPA rate and 85.6 passer rating. The most encouraging aspect of that is how those numbers seem to be his floor.
Advertisement
Things are spiraling for the Buffalo Bills’ Allen, and now there’s a new offensive coordinator in Buffalo after Ken Dorsey was ousted this week. Allen’s Week 10 EPA rate in the loss to the Denver Broncos was his worst since Week 14 in 2019. Allen produced consecutive negative EPA rates for the first time in the regular season since Weeks 1-2 in 2021. The swoon dropped him from third to seventh in this season’s overall EPA rankings.
Nos. 9-16
player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 10 | Rtg ovr | Rtg wk 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|
0.11 (9) | 0.46 (2) | 99.1 (8) | 122.4 (3) | |
0.08 (10) | BYE | 82.0 (24) | BYE | |
0.07 (11) | 0.26 (6) | 93.7 (13) | 102.4 (8) | |
0.06 (12) | IR | 103.8 (5) | IR | |
0.00 (13) | 0.13 (10) | 89.2 (19) | 103.9 (7) | |
-0.00 (14) | 0.15 (9) | 80.5 (26) | 71.8 (19) | |
-0.02 (15) | -0.24 (24) | 98.1 (9) | 67.8 (24) | |
-0.02 (16) | 0.05 (11) | 104.0 (4) | 117.4 (4) |
Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns and Jared Goff amassed his best EPA rate of the season in the win over the Chargers. A nice bounce-back outing for Goff after the bye. He struggled a bit in Weeks 7-8 with a -0.15 EPA rate and 76.9 passer rating.
Baker Mayfield has left that poor Week 6-8 stretch behind (-0.11 EPA rate, 77.1 passer rating). In the last two games, Mayfield tallied a 0.29 EPA rate and 111.1 passer rating. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB is having his best season since 2020 when he went to the playoffs with the Browns.
Geno Smith rebounded from the worst EPA rate and passer rating of his Seattle Seahawks career in Week 9 to propel the team to a last-second win over the Washington Commanders in Week 10. It was his third 100.0-plus-passer rating performance of this season.
In the last five Green Bay Packers losses, Jordan Love has yielded a -0.10 EPA rate and 67.8 passer rating. Love also possesses the league’s lowest completion percentage at 58.7 percent. That said, Love has produced a 0.10 EPA rate or better in three of his last four games.
Coincidence that an AFC North foe was the last team to slow down the Baltimore Ravens’ Jackson this season? The numbers from Jackson’s Week 10 outing in a loss to the Cleveland Browns resembled his performance in a Week 5 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.31 EPA rate, 65.2 passer rating). His 56.5 completion percentage in Week 10 stands as a season low.
Advertisement
I’ve been pretty harsh on Wilson for his empty stats and a career-worst game (in terms of EPA) earlier this season. Wilson’s EPA rate probably should’ve been higher given how often the Broncos began possessions inside Bills territory in Week 10. But … Wilson looked the part again in a thrilling win. During the Broncos’ current three-game winning streak, Wilson has amassed a 0.05 EPA rate and 115. passer rating.
Nos. 17-24
player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 10 | Rtg ovr | Rtg wk 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|
-0.03 (17) | 0.21 (7) | 91.5 (15) | 109.3 (6) | |
-0.03 (18) | 0.27 (5) | 85.1 (20) | 101.1 (9) | |
-0.03 (19) | 0.04 (12) | 90.5 (16) | 90.3 (10) | |
-0.04 (20) | -0.16 (21) | 89.8 (17) | 87.7 (11) | |
-0.04 (21) | -0.06 (15) | 83.8 (23) | 69.6 (21) | |
-0.05 (22) | NA | 78.1 (28) | NA | |
-0.09 (23) | NA | 91.6 (14) | NA | |
-0.10 (24) | -0.07 (16) | 71.4 (32) | 73.0 (17) |
Plenty of teams could use a Sam Howell-type quarterback right now. Too bad the Commanders squandered good outings from Howell in Week 8 and 10 losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Seahawks, respectively. Howell totaled a 0.18 EPA rate and 111.8 passer rating in those two games.
You might not know this, but Josh Dobbs ranked ninth in EPA rate (0.12) and 10th in passer rating (99.4) during the first four weeks of the season while starting for the Arizona Cardinals. So I’m not totally stunned by the success he’s having in Minnesota. It’s more about how quickly he’s acclimated himself with the Vikings.
Burrow and Derek Carr possess very similar overall numbers, and I wouldn’t have imagined that to be the case more than halfway through the season. It feels so much better for the Cincinnati Bengals’ signal caller, though, despite the setback in Week 10 against the Texans. Carr seemed unsettled in Week 10 — and sustained a concussion and right shoulder re-injury — despite coming off a 0.22 EPA rate and 119.6 passer rating in Weeks 8-9.
The Indianapolis Colts’ Gardner Minshew made it the ninth time this season in a quarterback guided a team to a win with a passer rating south of 70.0.
The Las Vegas Raiders are 2-0 since Aidan O’Connell took over as starter in Week 9. O’Connell didn’t set the world on fire in the team’s Week 10 win over the New York Jets with a -0.27 EPA rate and 72.0 passer rating. O’Connell had more success against the New York Giants in Week 9 (0.25 EPA rate, 90.3 passer rating).
Justin Fields is expected to start this week for the Chicago Bears after missing the last month with a right thumb injury. Rookie Tyson Bagent kept the Bears viable with a 2-2 mark as a starter despite posting lackluster rates.
Advertisement
Nos. 25-33
player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 10 | Rtg ovr | Rtg wk 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|
-0.11 (25) | NA | 71.9 (31) | NA | |
-0.11 (26) | NR | 84.1 (22) | NR | |
-0.11 (27) | -0.61 (29) | 89.3 (18) | 48.8 (29) | |
-0.16 (28) | -0.05 (14) | 84.3 (21) | 74.8 (16) | |
-0.16 (29) | -0.14 (20) | 80.2 (27) | 79.2 (14) | |
-0.17 (30) | -0.19 (22) | 81.1 (25) | 75.6 (15) | |
-0.19 (31) | -0.13 (19) | 75.9 (29) | 68.4 (23) | |
-0.23 (32) | -0.00 (13) | 74.6 (30) | 68.6 (22) | |
-0.23 (33) | IR | 70.5 (33) | IR |
We’re only two weeks removed from the Tennessee Titans’ Will Levis yielding a 0.13 EPA rate and 130.5 passer rating in his first start in a win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. Last two weeks for Levis: -0.16 EPA rate, 59.8 passer rating.
Current Falcons starter Taylor Heinicke isn’t passer-rating qualified yet so he’s not listed in the rankings. In three appearances, Heinicke has produced a 0.02 EPA rate and 84.2 passer rating. His Week 10 numbers in a loss to the Cardinals: -0.25 EPA rate, 84.0 passer rating.
No hyperbole here with the Jags’ Trevor Lawrence. He compiled the worst EPA rate and third-worst passer rating of his career in the blowout loss to the 49ers. During Jacksonville’s five-game winning streak, Lawrence tallied a 0.04 EPA rate and 100.2 passer rating.
The Browns and Steelers both stand at 6-3 and very much in the thick of the AFC playoff race. This despite their respective quarterbacks — Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett — consistently near (or in) the basement of these rankings. Watson picked up his biggest win as Browns QB in Week 11 against the Ravens, but now he’s out for the year with a right shoulder injury. As for Pickett, he hasn’t thrown a pick since Oct. 1.
Mac Jones’ time as the New England Patriots’ starter may be nearing an end with Bailey Zappe replacing Jones on the final drive in the Week 10 loss to the Colts.
How’s this for a surprise: Undrafted rookie Bagent has pushed the Bears to more wins in four starts this season (two) than 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young has for the Carolina Panthers (one).
I see little point in examining the New York quarterbacks, but since the Giants’ Tommy DeVito doesn’t qualify for overall rankings, here you go: -0.30 EPA rate, 67.8 passer rating vs. Cowboys in Week 10.
(The Cardinals’ Kyler Murray will be ranked once he’s passer-rating qualified. Murray returned from his knee injury with a -0.12 EPA rate and 71.0 passer rating in the team’s Week 10 win over the Falcons.)
Week 11 defense vs. QB EPA matchups
Team | DefEPA/DB | Opp qb | Epa/db |
---|---|---|---|
0.28 (1) | Kenny Pickett | -0.17 (30) | |
0.17 (2) | Joe Burrow | -0.03 (19) | |
0.14 (3) | Jalen Hurts | 0.11 (8) | |
0.11 (4) | Baker Mayfield | 0.07 (11) | |
0.10 (5) | Josh Allen | 0.14 (7) | |
0.08 (6) | Will Levis | -0.08 (NR) | |
0.06 (7) | Bryce Young | -0.19 (31) | |
0.03 (8) | Dak Prescott | 0.17 (3) | |
0.02 (9) | BYE | ||
0.01 (10) | Deshaun Watson* | -0.16 (28) | |
0.00 (11) | Lamar Jackson | -0.02 (15) | |
-0.00 (12) | Aidan O’Connell | -0.06 (NR) | |
-0.00 (13) | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.21 (2) | |
-0.00 (14) | BYE | ||
-0.00 (15) | Justin Herbert | 0.16 (4) | |
-0.01 (16) | Zach Wilson | -0.23 (32) | |
-0.01 (17) | Russell Wilson | -0.02 (16) | |
-0.03 (18) | Justin Fields* | -0.09 (23) | |
-0.03 (19) | Matthew Stafford* | 0.08 (10) | |
-0.05 (20) | Patrick Mahomes | 0.15 (6) | |
-0.05 (21) | Sam Howell | -0.03 (17) | |
-0.06 (22) | BYE | ||
-0.08 (23) | BYE | ||
-0.08 (24) | Kyler Murray | -0.12 (NR) | |
-0.09 (25) | Brock Purdy | 0.28 (1) | |
-0.09 (26) | Geno Smith | 0.00 (13) | |
-0.11 (27) | Trevor Lawrence | -0.11 (27) | |
-0.13 (28) | Jordan Love | -0.00 (14) | |
-0.14 (29) | C.J. Stroud | 0.15 (5) | |
-0.15 (30) | Jared Goff | 0.11 (9) | |
-0.16 (31) | Tommy DeVito | -0.39 (NR) | |
-0.16 (32) | Joshua Dobbs | -0.03 (18) |
*Injury uncertainty heading into Week 11
(Photo of Dak Prescott; Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGlscHBmZnxzfJFsZmppX2aCcLrFpWSqml2nrq%2B3yKeerGWUlrhuvNGeqpynpKl6q7vSoWSapJyau26%2B1KyqnqScYsSquNKopWg%3D